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Building a Better Business Case and ROI
CFO’s Look for More
Much has been written about ROI. Books, trade publications, websites, and entire companies are dedicated to discussing ROI. There are loud cries of support for, and equally loud cries of criticism against, the use and effectiveness of ROI. What seems to be ignored is that, like any tool, ROI is subject to misapplication and misuse.
There are two chief defects with most "average" ROI calculations. First, they assume best outcome scenarios, and second, most average calculations lack comprehensive treatment needed to accurately predict ROI.
The problem with best outcome scenarios is that they predict a financial return which will be realized only under the most favorable of circumstances. The probability of a best outcome scenario is indeed possible, but it is low. There are risks inherent in every project, and it is neither realistic nor prudent to give casual treatment to such risks. Risk exists, and it is incumbent on all members of the project team to surface, analyze, and develop risk reduction strategies that improve the probability of financial and operational success.
Most CFO's will quickly discount - or outright reject - business cases and ROI calculations that do not reflect realistic projections. The greater the complexity, in terms of size and values of time duration, talent requirements, operational change, and cost the project, the more likely the CFO will significantly discount the returns and inflate the costs. Unless these items are properly discussed, the CFO's adjustment process may result in the project not being approved.
Conversely, the more detailed and explicit the calculations include company specific and project specific factors and risks, the more believable the projections will be to the CFO and approval team. This increases the credibility of the projections, and thereby, the probability that the investment in the project will be approved.
Use More Than One CBA Method Because each of the CBA [cost benefit analysis] methods provides different insight, many organizations have opted to use more than one method as a second comparison to corroborate results, such as combining ROI and Payback Period. The first method provides the primary metric, with the second calculation used to corroborate or validate the results. When investment options appear to deliver similar value, the second calculation can serve as a "tiebreaker".
Existing Situation v. Proposal v. Alternate Options For greater credibility and relevance, the body of the business case should compare both existing and proposed operational costs and benefits, as well as alternate options that were considered, but not selected. This analysis helps the author to explain in explicit detail the objective consideration of a broader range of options, and it further informs the reader - the decision team - that competing choices were given due consideration, and the rationale for why they were not the recommended course of action.
Risk Management An important element of understanding the ability of a technology project to deliver value to the organization is the concept of risk. Risk defines the likelihood of success.
As projects increase in complexity, the complexity of risk increases as well. New risks may be added, which might range from having a team that understands all technical and business aspects, risk of cultural acceptance of new changes, risk of delays, risk of unintended and unexpected outcomes, and so forth.
Operational risks include failure of the new system to perform as expected. This can include outright system failures, or an ineffective fit of the system with the application requirements, or overly complex business practices. Changes in the boundary condition of what the project was proposed to address, otherwise referred to as project scope, can also affect the projects ability to meet expectations. Terms are used to describe the extent of the change range from minor - "scope creep" - to major - "scope leap".
Portfolio Management A portfolio management approach which considers factors such as projected value, projected cost, estimated risk, and expected duration can help management teams apply focus and attention to a smaller, but better quality group of investments.
Portfolio management considers the value and status of each project on its individual merits. Interestingly, the portfolio management model and approach borrows its philosophy from none other than finance.
Evaluation Approaches An After Action Report (AAR) is an exercise, borrowed from the US Military, which reviews the actual performance and results of a project with those that were expected. Positive and negative differences are used as learning experiences to improve future performance, such that the organization changes its institutional practices. AAR's are intended to be used as a training and developmental tool, and not punitive, unless required.
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